In an earlier post I promised to monitor domestic and international one-day matches this summer, and hypothetically compare the Duckworth Lewis (DL) method to the old best-scoring overs (BSO) method. From the 20th over onwards in the second innings, each method will predict a winner by providing a target score, as if the match was suddenly rained out. So there will be a prediction after over 20, 21, 22… all the way up to 49; 30 predictions in total if the match goes that distance (no points awarded for predicting the winner after over 50).
[Update as of 3/11/2013 – I’ve made the executive decision to add the highest-scoring consecutive overs method to this.]
In the first match Tasmania spoiled the experiment by not lasting until over 40 – but all methods correctly chose the winner correctly 15 times, until the match ended at the end of over 35.
![01tas](https://thenewstatsman.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/01tas.png?w=300&h=177)
![More...](https://i0.wp.com/thenewstatsman.wordpress.com/wp-includes/js/tinymce/plugins/wordpress/img/trans.gif)
You’ll notice that the BSO line is pretty smooth, but the DL is jagged – that’s because the target changes markedly each time the chasing team loses a wicket. (In this match, Tasmania were kind enough to demonstrate this frequently.)
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